Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – June 2024 survey

Key Findings: -Cellphone network challenges rival transportation challenges in both their prevalence and impact, affecting more than half the traders and doubling since 2023. -More than 30 percent of traders reported being affected by exchange rate volatility and inflation, export/import challenges, and local and regional conflict. Notably, most encountered these shocks in April, May, and June 2024. -Reported credit challenges are at their highest points in the past three years. The proportion of traders offering credit to farmers has decreased, and for some, the credit terms have shifted to higher interest rates and extended loan durations. -Prices for the six most common commodities in our data have increased markedly in the past two years. Trader sales prices of rice were three times higher in June 2024 than in April 2022. -Margins in June 2024 were 0.8 points higher than in April 2023. Rising trading margins could reflect increasing transport or transactions costs in trading, and are generally a negative sign for agrifood system efficiency.

Looking Ahead: -Communication challenges in cellphone networks together with widespread transport disruptions could lead to inefficiencies in spatial arbitrage and widening gaps between consumer and producer prices. -Credit challenges are increasing and rising prices will place greater financial stress on the farmers and traders alike. -More than 40 percent of traders consider the general inflation and exchange rate volatility as a negative shock that reduces their business revenues. This survey was conducted before a large currency devaluation in informal markets and widespread flooding in Myanmar impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. These shocks add additional stress to the food system.